{"id":26219,"date":"2026-01-29T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T12:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=26219"},"modified":"2026-01-28T14:22:23","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T19:22:23","slug":"sentiment-watch-too-much-greed-is-not-good","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/sentiment-watch-too-much-greed-is-not-good\/","title":{"rendered":"Sentiment Watch: Too Much Greed Is Not Good"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Don\u2019t look now, but investor greed is moving into the danger zone again for stocks. At the very same time, the market\u2019s fear gauge, the Volatility Index (VIX), is ticking higher along with stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s a bad combination, which in the past, has often led to stock market corrections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"439\" height=\"244\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jmu-1.29.26-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-917771\" style=\"width:900px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jmu-1.29.26-1.png 439w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jmu-1.29.26-1-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jmu-1.29.26-1-370x205.png 370w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 439px) 100vw, 439px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>You can see above that our TradeSmith Fear &amp; Greed indicator (<em>found on the Market Outlook page<\/em>) is ticking higher again. The current reading near 75 isn\u2019t signaling extreme greed just yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But, three out of the seven sub-components of the indicator are registering extreme greed, and another two components are now signaling \u201cgreed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, institutional investors are once again displaying an all-in risk on attitude, by throwing caution to the wind to get leveraged long the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"458\" height=\"553\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jmu-1.29.26-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-917774\" style=\"width:900px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jmu-1.29.26-2.png 458w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jmu-1.29.26-2-248x300.png 248w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jmu-1.29.26-2-326x394.png 326w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/jmu-1.29.26-2-398x480.png 398w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 458px) 100vw, 458px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAIIM) publishes a weekly exposure index that tracks the investment allocation of professional money managers nationwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The current reading (<em>far right, top panel<\/em>) is near 90, but just a few weeks ago it reached the highest level in months at 100.7. That means money managers are not only fully invested but also long on margin to lift their allocation above 100%. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the lower panel of the chart above is the S&amp;P 500 Index, and you can see that extreme highs at or above 100 in the NAIIM index line up almost exactly with stock market corrections in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Bottom line<\/em>: Stock market seasonality remains bullish right now, according to our Trade Cycles timing indicators. But seasonality often turns negative by springtime of mid-term election years, which includes 2026. That\u2019s why it\u2019s a good idea to keep an eye on market sentiment indicators, like our Fear &amp; Greed index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When they hit extremes, that\u2019s the time to consider lightening up on your investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Good investing,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.exct.tradesmith.com\/lib\/fe8213727c6200757c\/m\/1\/34a6d15e-eaf1-4c10-bf47-a783782acc4a.png\" alt=\"Signature\" style=\"width:235px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mike Burnick<br>Contributing Editor, <em>Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Don\u2019t look now, but investor greed is moving into the danger zone again for stocks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":100,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[155],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-26219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-mike-burnick"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26219","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/100"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26219"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26219\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26228,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26219\/revisions\/26228"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26219"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26219"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26219"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=26219"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=26219"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=26219"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=26219"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}