{"id":26300,"date":"2026-02-11T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T12:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=26300"},"modified":"2026-02-10T14:25:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T19:25:19","slug":"this-tool-could-have-led-you-to-243-gains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-tool-could-have-led-you-to-243-gains\/","title":{"rendered":"This Tool Could Have Led You to 243% Gains\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Managing Editor’s Note: <\/strong>Keith Kaplan – CEO of TradeSmith – is going to tell us about one of his favorite TradeSmith tools…<\/p>\n

It’s called the Long-Term Health indicator. It’s an evidence-based signal that could have led you to a 243% gain on one of this year’s most explosive rallies simply by following a clear, traffic-light-style signal.<\/p>\n

It’s also the first indicator TradeSmith developed. And it powers our flagship risk management software, TradeStops.<\/p>\n

It’s built around the simple observation that every asset has a normal range of movement.<\/p>\n

Whether it’s a stock, ETF, or commodity like silver or gold, every asset develops a well-defined rhythm of ups and downs.<\/p>\n

And all you need to know is if the stock is in one of three zones: Green, Yellow, or Red.<\/p>\n

Check out how it works below.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

BY KEITH KAPLAN, CEO, TRADESMITH<\/strong><\/p>\n

The bloody fingerprint on Francisca Rojas’ bedroom door would change criminal investigations forever.<\/p>\n

In June 1892, in the Argentine town of Necochea, two young children were found brutally murdered in their home.<\/p>\n

Rojas, their mother, was discovered nearby with a gash across her throat.<\/p>\n

She told police that a neighbor, Pedro Velázquez, had attacked her and killed her children after a heated argument.<\/p>\n

There was just one problem. Velázquez had been out drinking with friends at the time of the murders. His alibi was airtight.<\/p>\n

With the case stuck, police turned to a little-known clerk named Juan Vucetich.<\/p>\n

For years, he’d been studying a controversial new European theory called dactyloscopy. Its proponents argued that no two people share the same fingerprints – so they could be used to match criminals to their crimes.<\/p>\n

Investigators didn’t dust for prints in those days. That wouldn’t become routine for decades.<\/p>\n

But Vucetich noticed something others had ignored. There was a fingerprint, left in blood, on the frame of Rojas’ bedroom door – where only the killer, leaving the room, would have touched it.<\/p>\n

It didn’t match the neighbor. It matched Rojas.<\/em><\/p>\n

Confronted with this evidence, she confessed that she’d killed her children and staged the attack by cutting her own throat to begin a new life with another man.<\/p>\n

It was the first murder case in history solved using fingerprints. And it changed criminal investigations permanently. Once there was objective fingerprint evidence to follow, intuition still mattered – but it no longer had the final say.<\/p>\n

Successful investing works the same way.<\/p>\n

Stories are everywhere. Some are even right. But the only way to stay on the right side of big moves is to follow the evidence, not hunches, guesswork, or intuition.<\/p>\n

So today, I’ll shine the spotlight on one my favorite evidence-based signals.<\/p>\n

We’ll look at how it would have led you to a 243% gain on one of this year’s most explosive rallies simply by following a clear, traffic-light-style signal.<\/p>\n

Then we’ll wrap up with some other interesting signals on deck right now.<\/p>\n

Silver Has Been on a Rocket Ride<\/h2>\n

The explosive rally I’m talking about was in silver.<\/p>\n

Over the past 12 months, the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)<\/strong> rocketed as much as 260% before plunging 35% at the end of last month.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

There are lots of narratives that attempt to explain silver’s price action.<\/p>\n

If you’ve been following what’s happening in the mainstream press or on social media, you’ve likely encountered some of them:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • The U.S. dollar is losing value versus overseas currencies.<\/li>\n
  • Investors are worried about the return of inflation.<\/li>\n
  • President Trump wants lower interest rates.<\/li>\n
  • Rising global tensions are sending investors into precious metals as a hedge against chaos.<\/li>\n
  • Spiraling federal deficits mean the dollar could collapse.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    There’s nothing wrong with finding these stories interesting – I personally love reading about the world and how it works. But I don’t base my investment decisions on them.<\/p>\n

    Instead, my first port of call is TradeSmith’s Long-Term Health indicator. All I want to know is if it’s in one of three zones: Green, Yellow, or Red.<\/p>\n

    Green, Yellow, or Red?<\/h2>\n

    Long-Term Health was the first indicator TradeSmith developed. And it powers our flagship risk management software, TradeStops.<\/p>\n

    It’s built around the simple observation that every asset has a normal range of movement.<\/p>\n

    Whether it’s a stock, ETF, or commodity like silver or gold, every asset develops a well-defined rhythm of ups and downs.<\/p>\n

    We measure this with a proprietary metric called the Volatility Quotient (VQ). It tells you how much a stock or other asset typically moves over long stretches of time.<\/p>\n

    You can think of this as its unique volatility “fingerprint.” A higher VQ means wider, more violent swings are the norm. A lower VQ means calmer, steadier trading.<\/p>\n

    Once we know an asset’s VQ, we can see whether today’s price action is normal or extreme by historical standards.<\/p>\n

    If it’s moving higher and remains within its usual volatility range, it’s in a Green Zone. Its bullish trend is intact, and any downside moves – however they might feel to someone holding that asset – <\/em>aren’t a concern.<\/p>\n

    If it moves outside its normal volatility range, an asset enters a Red Zone. That signals that the trend has broken down, and it’s time to sell.<\/p>\n

    It’s not about whether prices are moving in one direction or another. It’s about whether they’re moving out of character.<\/p>\n

    So, what did our Long-Term Health indicator tell us about when to buy and sell silver?<\/p>\n

    243% Gains from These Traffic-Light Signals<\/h2>\n

    Here’s a chart of the iShares Silver ETF (SLV) with its Long-Term Health indicator signals – those green, yellow, and red bars along the bottom.<\/p>\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n

    SLV gave investors a green light in May 2023. The trend was healthy – and it was a buy. And it remained a buy or a hold until last Friday.<\/p>\n

    See that red bar on the right? It shows that SLV moved out of its normal trading range and into the Red Zone. That’s your signal to sell.<\/p>\n

    If you’d relied on this traffic-light approach – rather than trying to handicap interest rates, Fed politics, or the latest macro headline – you’d have captured a 243% gain in SLV in just under three years.<\/p>\n

    Not because you predicted anything, but because you followed the evidence.<\/p>\n

    Where does the evidence say we should focus now?<\/p>\n

    Five Stocks That Just Flashed Green<\/h2>\n

    Here’s a list of five large-cap stocks that have just entered their Long-Term Health Green Zone.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. AbbVie (ABBV) <\/strong>sells life-saving drugs that patients don’t stop taking just because the economy slows. Its cash flows are predictable, its dividends are real, and its trend remains firmly in character.<\/li>\n
    2. AT&T (T) <\/strong>isn’t exciting – and that’s the point. Wireless bills get paid before almost anything else. That steady, utility-like demand shows up clearly in the stock’s long-term behavior.<\/li>\n
    3. Mondelez (MDLZ) <\/strong>owns some of the most recognizable snack brands on Earth – Oreo, Cadbury, Ritz, and more. In good times or bad, people still reach for familiar comforts. The market reflects that consistency.<\/li>\n
    4. Motorola Solutions (MSI) <\/strong>sells mission-critical communications gear to police, firefighters, and emergency services. These are long-cycle contracts tied to public safety, not consumer mood swings.<\/li>\n
    5. Cencora (COR) <\/strong>sits deep inside the pharmaceutical supply chain, distributing drugs hospitals and pharmacies can’t operate without. It’s plumbing – invisible, essential, and remarkably resilient.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      None of these companies needs rate cuts, AI hype, or economic miracles to do well. They make money doing ordinary things, day after day, in businesses that rarely surprise anyone.<\/p>\n

      That makes them great ballast in your portfolio if the AI trade runs out of steam or the economy starts to stumble.<\/p>\n

      And with the tech-filled Nasdaq 100 down nearly 4% this week – on track for one of the steepest weekly selloffs since April 2025’s Liberation Day – that’s a big plus.<\/p>\n

      More important, our system has identified them as strong candidates for gains over the coming weeks and months… no matter what the headlines say.<\/p>\n

      All the best,<\/p>\n

      Keith Kaplan<\/p> \n

      CEO, TradeSmith<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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