{"id":26891,"date":"2026-04-17T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=26891"},"modified":"2026-04-16T14:08:26","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T18:08:26","slug":"every-stock-has-a-tell-heres-how-to-read-them","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/every-stock-has-a-tell-heres-how-to-read-them\/","title":{"rendered":"Every Stock Has a Tell \u2013 Here\u2019s How to Read Them"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Managing Editor\u2019s note: <\/strong>Today, our CEO Keith Kaplan has a special announcement.<\/p>\n

For the past year, the team at TradeSmith has been building a revolutionary type of trading technology.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a new application of AI that builds a \u201cbehavioral profile\u201d for thousands of stocks \u2013 and then identifies the high-probability trade setups that match each one. Many of those setups have historical accuracy rates of 90% and higher.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the most advanced analytical tool in TradeSmith\u2019s 21-year history. And because it looks at the market in a way that most investors never think of, it gives you a genuine edge.<\/p>\n

In a one-year backtest, it beat the S&P 500 by 3-to-1.<\/p>\n

TradeSmith has opened a final beta version to all Market Minute <\/em>readers (check it out right here for immediate access)<\/a> so you can test it yourself before our official launch event on Wednesday, April 22, at 10 a.m. Eastern<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Then read on for how this new tool is built on the same pattern-recognition principle used by football coaches, FBI behavioral profilers \u2013 and the most successful hedge fund in Wall Street history.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Every Stock Has a Tell \u2013 Here\u2019s How to Read Them<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

BY KEITH KAPLAN, CEO, TRADESMITH<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bill Belichick knows things about opposing quarterbacks that they don\u2019t even know themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belichick coached the New England Patriots for more than two decades and won six Super Bowls. But it wasn\u2019t just the wins that made him a legend \u2013 it was also the preparation behind them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every week, before facing a new team, he built a behavioral profile of its key players. Not just the obvious tendencies \u2013 like where a quarterback liked to throw on third and long or how he handled pressure \u2013 but also the really granular stuff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How he responds to cold weather. Whether he holds the ball longer on turf than on grass. How a particular official\u2019s calls shape his decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FBI profilers built an entire discipline around the same idea. Study anyone carefully enough, and their behavioral patterns become visible \u2013 and predictable. Not perfectly\u2026 but enough to act on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most investors don\u2019t realize it. But every stock has its own behavioral profile, too \u2013 its own habits, quirks, and tells.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once you learn how to read that profile, the market looks less like a random system and more like a place where patterns govern what happens next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At TradeSmith, my team and I have spent more than a year developing a new type of pattern-extracting trading tool. It builds a behavioral profile of more than 2,000 stocks \u2013 and scans them every day for the specific patterns that have historically preceded big moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ll show you how it works in a moment and how it\u2019s found recurring patterns with historical accuracy rates of 90% and higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, it\u2019s important you understand that we haven\u2019t just created revolutionary new software. This is a whole new way to think about markets\u2026 and a whole new way to make money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Each Stock Has Its Own Story<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We all know there are different ways to analyze stocks and select trades. The main two are fundamental analysis and technical analysis (also known as chart analysis).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With fundamental analysis, you look at what a company is worth and whether the market is pricing it correctly. Warren Buffett made this method famous. It works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it applies the same framework to every company, as if they all behave the same way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With technical analysis, you look at how a stock is trading rather than what the business is doing. It also works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But like fundamental analysis, it also applies the same frameworks to thousands of different companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there\u2019s a game-changing third approach that we\u2019ve been working on at TradeSmith.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where fundamental analysis asks what a company is worth and technical analysis asks how it\u2019s been trading, our approach asks something different entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How does this specific stock<\/em> behave \u2013 and when does that behavior signal a big move?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We call it Behavioral Profile Analysis (BPA). And it changes how you think about trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This Changes How You See Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At the foundation of BPA is the simple observation: Every business in the world is unique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This means every stock has its own way of behaving and its own way of reacting to what happens in the economy and the markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, an IT company like Oracle (ORCL)<\/strong> will behave differently than an oil producer like Chevron (CVX)<\/strong>. And a big drug company like Pfizer (PFE)<\/strong> will behave differently than a retailer like Macy\u2019s (M)<\/strong>. Again, two very different business models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When you look at the markets this way, stocks start to resemble people. Each one has its own behavioral patterns \u2014 its own habits, tendencies, and quirks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same economic event hits two companies differently. The same market development triggers two different reactions. And underneath it all, each stock leaves behind a distinct trading \u201cthumbprint.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But most of those thumbprints are invisible to the human eye.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s why the system we developed evaluates 2.09 million potential trades every day across 2,467 stocks. It runs each one through hundreds of calculations, looking for the specific combinations of factors that have historically preceded big moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We tested this strategy from every angle. Here\u2019s what we found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When These Factors Align, Gains Tend to Follow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Invesco (IVZ) <\/strong>is one of the world\u2019s largest investment management firms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We ran it through our system and found that two factors had to align for IVZ\u2019s signal to fire. The stock\u2019s Bollinger Percent B and its Money Flow Index both had to exceed 80.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bollinger Percent B measures where a stock\u2019s price sits relative to its recent trading range. The Money Flow Index tracks whether money is flowing into or out of the stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No human analyst would\u2019ve cracked this specific pattern because nobody would ever think to look for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But this signal produced an 18.8% gain in 11 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For Lam Research (LRCX)<\/strong>, one of the largest suppliers of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, the pattern was different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two different factors had to align for this signal to fire. The stock had to close above its 200-day moving average. And that close had to fall exactly two trading days before a market holiday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nothing about the company\u2019s earnings\u2026 the semiconductor sector\u2026 or the broader market. Just a price condition and a calendar condition, lining up at a specific moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the signal fired on Aug. 28, 2025 \u2013 two trading days before Labor Day \u2013 LRCX gained 11.4% in 15 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The historical accuracy rate behind that signal was 86%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And we didn\u2019t stop there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In January and February, we also ran a live beta test using these same signals internally. And the results were just as powerful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These Live Test Results Blew Us Away<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

One of our beta test trades was on Equifax (EFX)<\/strong>. It\u2019s one of America’s largest consumer credit reporting agencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Again, two factors had to align for this signal to fire. The stock had to close down four consecutive days. And market volatility had to rise above its 10-day average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When both conditions aligned, the result was a 15.2% gain in seven days \u2013 against a 91% historical accuracy rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With these examples, we were trading our signals with stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When we applied our signals to options trades, the results included:<\/p>\n\n\n\n