{"id":27608,"date":"2026-06-04T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=27608"},"modified":"2026-06-03T12:14:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T16:14:13","slug":"watch-out-for-a-june-market-swoon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/watch-out-for-a-june-market-swoon\/","title":{"rendered":"Watch Out for a June Market Swoon"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Managing Editor’s Note:<\/strong>\u202fToday, we’re hearing from our contributing editor Mike Burnick in his weekly feature.<\/p>\n

Mike has over 30 years in the investment and financial services industry – from operating as a stockbroker, trader, and research analyst, to running a mutual fund as a registered investment advisor and portfolio manager, to being Research Director for the Sovereign Society, specializing in global ETF and options investing.<\/p>\n

\u202fAnd he’s been senior analyst at TradeSmith for three years, running Constant Cash Flow, Infinite Income Loop,\u202fand Inside TradeSmith.<\/p>\n

Here’s Mike…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Watch Out for a June Market Swoon<\/strong><\/h2>\n

BY MIKE BURNICK, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, MARKET MINUTE <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Recently I pointed out that Energy seasonality is about to turn negative, in spite of oil prices still hovering near $100 a barrel.<\/p>\n

But what about overall stock market seasonality?<\/p>\n

Let’s take a closer look at our Trade Cycles indicators to see where seasonal trends stand for the S&P 500 Index.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

As you can see above, the month of June has not been very good to investors over the last 25 years. The S&P 500 is down 54% of the time this month, posting negative median returns of -0.15%.<\/p>\n

The good news is that stocks typically enjoy a stronger seasonal rebound in July.<\/p>\n

Also, the month of June tends to show a pattern of good initial gains in the first week, followed by lackluster returns in weeks 2 and 3, followed by a larger drop in week 3.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

This is often the week right after monthly options expiration in June (6\/18 this year<\/em>), which is also a triple-witching event.<\/p>\n

That means quarterly expiration for stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options—all on the same day.<\/p>\n

So, any market weakness this month could show up between next week, and the week ending June 26.<\/p>\n

This year is also a mid-term election year. This has historically produced a more distinct trading pattern than the average year. And it’s another reason for caution.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

The seasonal data show June tends to be even worse during mid-term years, down 73.68% of the time and posting median losses of -1.85% in mid-term years since 1950.<\/p>\n

The best June performance in mid-term years was 1998 at +3.9% but the worst in 2002 was -9.2%!<\/p>\n

Bottom line<\/em><\/strong>: According to our Trade Cycles seasonality data, you should keep a watchful eye out for a possible stock market pullback in the weeks ahead, prior to a July rebound.<\/p>\n

Good investing,<\/p>\n

\"Signature\"<\/p>\n

Mike Burnick
\nContributing Editor, Market Minute<\/em><\/p> ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Keep a watchful eye out for a possible stock market pullback in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":100,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[155],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-27608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-mike-burnick"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_content_changed_during_generation":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27608","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/100"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27608"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27608\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27614,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27608\/revisions\/27614"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27608"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27608"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27608"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=27608"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=27608"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=27608"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=27608"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}