{"id":27728,"date":"2026-06-18T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=27728"},"modified":"2026-06-16T12:13:02","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T16:13:02","slug":"tracking-the-supply-demand-equation-for-spacex","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/tracking-the-supply-demand-equation-for-spacex\/","title":{"rendered":"Tracking the Supply\/Demand Equation for SpaceX"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Managing Editor’s Note:<\/strong>\u202fToday, we’re hearing from our contributing editor Mike Burnick in his weekly feature.<\/p>\n

Mike has over 30 years in the investment and financial services industry – from operating as a stockbroker, trader, and research analyst, to running a mutual fund as a registered investment advisor and portfolio manager, to being Research Director for the Sovereign Society, specializing in global ETF and options investing.<\/p>\n

\u202fAnd he’s been senior analyst at TradeSmith for three years, running Constant Cash Flow, Infinite Income Loop,\u202fand Inside TradeSmith.<\/p>\n

Here’s Mike…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tracking the Supply\/Demand Equation for SpaceX<\/h2>\n

BY MIKE BURNICK, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, MARKET MINUTE <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The SpaceX IPO launched last Friday with plenty of fanfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, shares surged about 20% higher on IPO day from the offering price\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the weekend, investors left out of the IPO had a few days for FOMO (fear of missing out<\/em>) to set in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And for an encore, a second stage of buying ignited on Monday sending SpaceX shares up another 20%!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No shortage of demand for SpaceX, despite its ultra-rich valuation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And there is more demand<\/em> where that came from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Five days post-IPO, demand for SpaceX shares from index funds will kick in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mutual funds and ETFs that track Dow Jones, Russell, MSCI, and Nasdaq indexes will add an estimated $14.2 billion worth of demand for SpaceX shares between now and the 4th of July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is also more supply<\/em> coming soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Insiders who bought into SpaceX as a private company (and there are a LOT of them<\/em>) face a lock-up period before they can sell their cheap shares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But soon after SpaceX reports second-quarter results in August, about 1 billion additional shares will be available for sale as the first lockup expires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if the stock is 30% above its IPO price on that date, which it already is now, up to 455 million additional shares become available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before year end, lockups will expire on several billion more shares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SpaceX only issued 555 million shares at its IPO. So, the initial index-fund demand<\/em> should have a positive impact on the stock price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But once the lockups begin to expire for SpaceX insiders later this summer and fall, the supply<\/em> of new shares could easily overwhelm current demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line<\/em><\/strong>: For my money, it may be best for traders to \u201crent<\/em>\u201d SpaceX shares near-term. Meanwhile, investors may want to curb their enthusiasm to \u201cown<\/em>\u201d the stock long-term. At least until supply and demand get back into balance.<\/p>\n

Good investing,<\/p>\n

\"Signature\"<\/p>\n

Mike Burnick
\nContributing Editor, Market Minute<\/em><\/p> ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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