{"id":28034,"date":"2026-07-15T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=28034"},"modified":"2026-07-14T15:03:17","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T19:03:17","slug":"these-seasonal-trends-take-the-guesswork-out-of-buying-and-selling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/these-seasonal-trends-take-the-guesswork-out-of-buying-and-selling\/","title":{"rendered":"These Seasonal Trends Take the Guesswork Out of Buying and Selling"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In June 1944, as the Allies prepared to invade Normandy, their plans hinged on one man, Group Captain James Stagg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And he was telling General Dwight D. Eisenhower, \u201cDon\u2019t do it!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Turns out, he was right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Everyone knows the Allies stormed the beaches on June 6, 1944. What you may not know is that D-Day was supposed to happen a day earlier \u2013 on June 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And if Eisenhower had ignored Stagg\u2019s warning\u2026 and went ahead with the invasion a day earlier\u2026 the Allies could have failed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Could one day have made that much difference?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Absolutely. Because Stagg\u2019s warning came down to the most fundamental element of planning a seaborne invasion: the weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You see, Stagg\u2019s path to the Allied Command was different than the more conventional officers in the war room.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He was a meteorologist best known for leading an Arctic expedition in 1932. And when the war began, he was the superintendent of Kew Observatory \u2013 Britain&#8217;s weather forecasting headquarters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, Eisenhower was asking Stagg for the most crucial observations of his career: conditions in the English Channel ahead of the largest amphibious assault in history. And Stagg\u2019s network of Royal Air Force weathermen had told him that a massive storm was rolling in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Luckily for Britain, the U.S., Canada, France, and the world, Eisenhower listened to Stagg. The landings took place on June 6, 1944, after the storm had passed. Eleven months later, the Allies were celebrating victory in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Timing is important for us as investors, too. It&#8217;s tempting to leave buying and selling decisions to gut feel. But at TradeSmith, we believe \u2013 like Stagg did \u2013 in following the data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of those signals is what we call &#8220;seasonality&#8221; \u2013 recurring patterns that repeat year in, year out with remarkable consistency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;ll show you how it works today\u2026 plus how seasonal trades generated 857% total growth in an 18-year backtest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Buy on These \u201cGreen Days\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I didn&#8217;t come to TradeSmith from Wall Street. I\u2019m a software engineer by training.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So when my team and I went looking for an edge for investors, we didn&#8217;t start by asking what <em>should<\/em> move a stock. We started by asking what the data already showed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We built software that scans more than 5,000 stocks \u2013 decades of price history \u2013 and asks a simple question. Does this stock behave differently at certain times of the year than others?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The answer, again and again, was yes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve found historically reliable windows across thousands of stocks \u2013 specific times of the year when they tended to rise or fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We call the bullish windows \u201cgreen days.\u201d&nbsp;And we built a trading system around them that spots these seasonal patterns with an 83% historical accuracy rate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words, they\u2019ve shown up in about eight years out of every 10. That\u2019s not a guarantee they\u2019ll show up again. But it\u2019s a statistical edge you can use to stacks the odds of success in your favor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Seasonality isn\u2019t new:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Commodity traders have always tracked planting and harvesting cycles.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Energy markets move with heating and cooling demand.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Gold has long shown seasonal strength tied to jewelry demand and annual buying patterns in India and China.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>And stock investors track seasonal patterns like the January Effect and the Santa Claus Rally.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s new is that we can now measure it precisely \u2013 across thousands of stocks, over decades of data, and down to specific days.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Target (TGT), for example, has climbed during the same 29-day window \u2013 late June into late July \u2013 in 15 straight years, gaining an average of 5.2%:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/tradesmith.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-10-at-9.43.24-AM.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Home Depot (HD) has done the same between mid-June and late July, rising 93.3% of the time over 15 years with an average gain of 4.7%:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/tradesmith.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-10-at-9.43.33-AM.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But rival home improvement store Lowe\u2019s (LOW) optimal window comes nearly two months later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>LOW has gone up 86.7% of the time from Aug. 10 to Sept. 11 during the past 15 years, with an average return of 6.1%:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/tradesmith.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-10-at-9.43.45-AM.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Over an 18-year backtest, these seasonal trades produced 857% in total growth \u2013 more than double the S&amp;P 500 over the same stretch. Even in 2007, the worst year in the test, the strategy still came out ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You don\u2019t have to just take my word for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0I\u2019ve asked my team to make a free trial of our Seasonality tool available so you can try it out for yourself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Test Drive Our Seasonality Software Today<\/h2>\n\n<p>You can try out our software on the stocks you own with <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/signup.tradesmith.com\/?cid=MKT873007&amp;eid=MKT876896&amp;step=start&amp;plcid=PLC248217\">this&nbsp;free, limited-time trial version.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We&rsquo;re making it available ahead of our <strong><em>Breakthrough 2026<\/em><\/strong> event. It&rsquo;s all about the seasonal patterns you need to be aware of in this critical year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>That&rsquo;s why we&rsquo;ve made a version of our&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/signup.tradesmith.com\/?cid=MKT873007&amp;eid=MKT876896&amp;step=start&amp;plcid=PLC248217\">Seasonality software available for you to explore now.&nbsp;<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We&rsquo;ve unlocked access so you can see the seasonal &ldquo;green days&rdquo; for thousands of stocks ahead of&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/signup.tradesmith.com\/?cid=MKT873007&amp;eid=MKT876896&amp;step=start&amp;plcid=PLC248217\">our <em>Breakthrough 2026<\/em> event.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>It kicks off <strong>Thursday, July 16, at 10 a.m. ET<\/strong>. And it\u2019s urgent that you attend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ll walk you through how we uncovered these patterns, why they persist even in chaotic markets, and how you can use them to guide real-world trading decisions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More important, I\u2019ll be also getting into detail about the fast-approaching seasonality patterns you need to be aware of.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Knowing when the windows are opening and closing likely matters more to your wealth than any single decision you\u2019ve made.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first date you\u2019ll want to circle on your calendar is July 16. If seasonality patterns hold this year, it could open up a lucrative trading opportunity in one of the market\u2019s hottest AI stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I hope you\u2019ll join us.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n<p>All the best,\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Keith Kaplan\u202f\u202f&nbsp;<br \/> CEO, TradeSmith\u202f\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Patterns that repeat year in, year out with remarkable consistency&#8230; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2765,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[118],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-28034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-keith-kaplan"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_content_changed_at":"","ai_tts_content_changed_during_generation":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2765"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28034"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28034\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28046,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28034\/revisions\/28046"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28034"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=28034"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=28034"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=28034"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=28034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}