{"id":28097,"date":"2026-07-23T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=28097"},"modified":"2026-07-22T10:22:35","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T14:22:35","slug":"the-clock-may-have-run-out-for-a-market-breakout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-clock-may-have-run-out-for-a-market-breakout\/","title":{"rendered":"The Clock May Have Run Out for a Market Breakout"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Managing Editor’s Note:<\/strong> Today, we’re hearing from our contributing editor Mike Burnick in his weekly feature.<\/p>\n

Mike has over 30 years in the investment and financial services industry – from operating as a stockbroker, trader, and research analyst, to running a mutual fund as a registered investment advisor and portfolio manager, to being Research Director for the Sovereign Society, specializing in global ETF and options investing.<\/p>\n

 And he’s been senior analyst at TradeSmith for three years, running Constant Cash Flow, Infinite Income Loop, and Inside TradeSmith.<\/p>\n

Here’s Mike…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The Clock May Have Run Out for a Market Breakout<\/h2>\n

BY MIKE BURNICK, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, MARKET MINUTE <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The S&P 500 has been coiling up in a sideways trading range recently, as Jeff pointed out last week.<\/p>\n

But if the market is going to breakout, it’s running on borrowed time, according to our Trade Cycles seasonality tools.<\/p>\n

Here’s a chart of the S&P 500 updated through last week’s close and you can clearly see the wedge-like pattern that’s developed in recent weeks.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

It’s a classic pattern of lower highs and higher lows. This typically means a big move is coming… one way or another<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Last week the S&P appeared to be breaking out above the red downtrend line. But last Friday it retreated back inside the coil.<\/p>\n

It’s at a critical spot too, according to our technical indicators.<\/p>\n

The Trade Smith Reactive Moving Average (dashed blue line<\/em>) sits near 7,477 right now.<\/p>\n

Years of historical data tells us the stock market – and individual stocks<\/em> – typically perform better when prices are above this key moving average. So, to maintain upward momentum, the S&P 500 needs to hold above this important moving average.<\/p>\n

And a closer look at our Trade Cycles indicators reveals more bad news: The S&P 500 has run out of “green days<\/em>.”<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

As you can see above, a bullish seasonal window just slammed shut for the S&P 500, according to our Trade Cycles analysis.<\/p>\n

We call these bullish seasonal windows green days<\/em>, and history shows it’s a great time to be invested in stocks. Over an 18-year backtest, bullish seasonal trades delivered 857% in total growth!<\/p>\n

The S&P was<\/em> in a bullish seasonal window for the past month. And sure enough, stocks moved up.<\/p>\n

But this bullish window closed two days ago, on Tuesday, July 21. And the seasonal trend points down from now through early October.<\/p>\n

Historically, the S&P 500 is only up about 50% of the time during this period, posting negative returns of -1.14% on average over the last 15 years.<\/p>\n

Bottom line<\/em><\/strong>: The clock may have run out for an S&P 500 breakout, according to our seasonal analysis. This doesn’t mean stocks will collapse. But a rally now requires the market to make its move against a consistent seasonal headwind over the next few months. Market swings like this can be both a threat AND<\/em> an opportunity, if you trade alongside consistent seasonal trends.<\/p>\n

Good investing,<\/p>\n

\"Signature\"<\/p>\n

Mike Burnick
\nContributing Editor, Market Minute<\/em><\/p> \n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A bullish seasonal window just slammed shut for the S&P 500, according to our Trade Cycles analysis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2762,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[155],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-28097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-mike-burnick"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_content_changed_at":"","ai_tts_content_changed_during_generation":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28097","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2762"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28097"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28097\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28103,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28097\/revisions\/28103"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28097"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28097"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28097"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=28097"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=28097"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=28097"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=28097"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}