{"id":28322,"date":"2026-08-27T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-27T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=28322"},"modified":"2026-08-26T12:36:08","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T16:36:08","slug":"bearish-seasonality-is-kicking-in-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/bearish-seasonality-is-kicking-in-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Bearish Seasonality Is Kicking in Now"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Managing Editor’s Note:<\/strong> Today, we’re hearing from our contributing editor Mike Burnick in his weekly feature.<\/p>\n

Mike has over 30 years in the investment and financial services industry – from operating as a stockbroker, trader, and research analyst, to running a mutual fund as a registered investment advisor and portfolio manager, to being Research Director for the Sovereign Society, specializing in global ETF and options investing.<\/p>\n

 And he’s been senior analyst at TradeSmith for three years, running Constant Cash Flow, Infinite Income Loop, and Inside TradeSmith.<\/p>\n

Here’s Mike…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/h2>\n

BY MIKE BURNICK, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, MARKET MINUTE <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The cycles found in nature, such as the seasons of the year and phases of the moon, are an irresistible force. Every month we’ll see a full moon… It’s a naturally repeating pattern.<\/p>\n

And cycles and seasonal influences apply to financial markets.<\/p>\n

For instance, the stock market has bullish<\/em> seasonality<\/em> from November through January. Perhaps not every<\/em> single year, but historically this is true more often than not.<\/p>\n

Stocks also have bearish<\/em> seasonality<\/em>, which is kicking in now.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

As you can see from our Trade Cycles chart above, the S&P 500 just started a seasonal period that has produced poor results historically.<\/p>\n

From late August through October, stocks are up just over 50% of the time, with the S&P 500 delivering negative annualized returns of -1.35% over the past 75 years.<\/p>\n

September starts next week and historically it’s been the worst month of the entire year to own stocks.<\/p>\n

Again, not every<\/em> year. Last September the S&P 500 gained 3.5%. Over the long run however, September stock market losses have outpaced gains.<\/p>\n

But that doesn’t mean everything<\/em> heads south at this time of year.<\/p>\n

And you can use our Trade Cycles<\/strong> Calendar<\/strong> to spot investments that typically buck the down trend in stocks.<\/p>\n

TradeSmith subscribers can access this valuable seasonal data by clicking on More<\/strong> from the main menu bar, then on Calendar<\/strong>. This will land you on our Market Calendar<\/strong> page, which includes many upcoming market events, including earnings, stock splits, dividend dates and much more.<\/p>\n

Next to Market Calendar, click on Trade Cycles Calendar<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

Next, under Sources<\/strong>, I selected S&P 500 Sectors and our ETF Master List. This will screen for ETFs that have bullish Seasonality or Valley Cycles during September-October.<\/p>\n

As you can see, most asset class ETFs are at Peak Cycles during this typically poor seasonal window, but a few ETFs stand out as bullish.<\/p>\n

Both the US Natural Gas ETF (UNG)<\/strong> and Energy Sector ETF (XLE)<\/strong> are approaching Valley Cycles in mid-September that continues into October. It tells you these ETFs are likely to turn higher, beginning new uptrends during this period.<\/p>\n

Despite the overall bearish stock market Seasonality at this time of year, energy stocks and ETFs have a bullish tendency to buck the trend and move up.<\/p>\n

Bottom line<\/em><\/strong>: Our Trade Cycles<\/strong> indicators can help you pinpoint bullish or bearish seasonal periods that have consistently repeated over the years. And using the Calendar<\/strong> feature, you can easily spot the exact days when stocks and ETFs are likely to turn higher or lower in price.<\/p>\n

Good investing,<\/p>\n

\"Signature\"<\/p>\n

Mike Burnick
\nContributing Editor, Market Minute<\/em><\/p> ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cycles and seasonal influences apply to financial markets. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2762,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[155],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-28322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-mike-burnick"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_content_changed_at":"","ai_tts_content_changed_during_generation":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2762"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28322"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28322\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28328,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28322\/revisions\/28328"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28322"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28322"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=28322"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=28322"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=28322"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=28322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}