{"id":28646,"date":"2026-10-08T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=28646"},"modified":"2026-10-07T13:34:23","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T17:34:23","slug":"this-stealth-bear-market-may-soon-be-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/this-stealth-bear-market-may-soon-be-over\/","title":{"rendered":"This Stealth Bear Market May Soon Be Over"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Managing Editor\u2019s Note: <\/strong>Today, we\u2019re hearing from our contributing editor Mike Burnick in his weekly feature.<\/p>\n

Mike has over 30 years in the investment and financial services industry \u2013 from operating as a stockbroker, trader, and research analyst, to running a mutual fund as a registered investment advisor and portfolio manager, to being Research Director for the Sovereign Society, specializing in global ETF and options investing.<\/p>\n

And he\u2019s been senior analyst at TradeSmith for three years, running Constant Cash Flow, Infinite Income Loop, and Inside TradeSmith.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s Mike\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

This Stealth Bear Market May Soon Be Over<\/h2>\n

BY MIKE BURNICK, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, MARKET MINUTE <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

Lots of folks are worried that stocks are cruising for a bruising<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just look at the multiple bearish market breadth indicators that have flashed recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • 75% of S&P 500 stocks are trading below their key 50-day moving averages.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Since mid-August more stocks have declined than advanced on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The number of NYSE and<\/em> Nasdaq stocks at new LOWS<\/em> has exceeded new highs for 25 straight trading days.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    We haven\u2019t seen bad breadth like this since the tariff-trauma market selloff in early 2025!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 just notched new all-time highs this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So, what gives?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Let\u2019s call it a stealth<\/em> bear market \u2026 which it has been for most of the S&P 500 \u2013 outside of a select few stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Over half of S&P 500 stocks are down 20% or more this year. That\u2019s the technical definition of a bear market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But it doesn\u2019t matter, because the heavy hitters at the top are doing almost all the work for the indexes. Just eight stocks accounted for 60% of the upside move in the S&P 500 since the March low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Nvidia<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Apple<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Microsoft<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Micron<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Alphabet<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Advanced Micro Devices<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Amazon<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Meta Platforms<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      But the lopsided market breadth indicators got so negative<\/em> that it\u2019s positive<\/em>!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Market breadth is even more oversold now than at the March bottom \u2013 a 10% decline for the S&P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      That means the worst of the selloff for \u201caverage\u201d stocks may soon be over, if it isn\u2019t already!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      And the really good news is that the fourth quarter of 2026 is now underway and historically, it\u2019s been a great time to be invested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      As you can see in this Trade Cycles Seasonality chart, the S&P 500 jumps an average of 6.5% from October through December in midterm election years. That\u2019s more than double the 2.9% average return across all other years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The stock market has taken some strange twists and turns this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      But the next act is likely to see the \u201caverage<\/em>\u201d stock play catch up in performance with the mega-cap tech stocks that have been doing all the heavy lifting lately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      And this bullish seasonal period we\u2019re now in would be just the right time to see this kind of market shift.<\/p>\n\n\n

      Good investing,<\/p>\n

      \"Signature\"<\/p>\n

      Mike Burnick
      \nContributing Editor, Market Minute<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      The stealth bear market may be ending, and the average stock looks set to catch up\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2762,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[155],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-28646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-mike-burnick"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_content_changed_at":"","ai_tts_content_changed_during_generation":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28646","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2762"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28646"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28646\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28679,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28646\/revisions\/28679"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28646"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28646"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28646"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=28646"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=28646"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=28646"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=28646"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}