{"id":28813,"date":"2026-10-28T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=28813"},"modified":"2026-10-27T12:54:36","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T16:54:36","slug":"bitcoin-is-a-problem-for-the-bulls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/bitcoin-is-a-problem-for-the-bulls\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Is a Problem for the Bulls"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin is still in “risk-off” mode. And, that’s a problem for the bulls. <\/p>\n

Admittedly, I’ve been leaning more bullish than bearish over the past couple weeks. The small cap stocks look setup to lead a year-end rally<\/a>. The Volatility Index (VIX) generated a buy signal<\/a>. And, the action in the financial sector – which often leads the broad stock market – has been bullish over the past few weeks<\/a>. <\/p>\n

There are plenty of reasons for traders to expect a year-end rally. <\/p>\n

The one glaring problem, though, is bitcoin. <\/p>\n

The King of Cryptocurrencies shifted into “risk-off” mode earlier this month<\/a>. Until it shifts back to “risk-on,” it’s hard to get bullish on stocks. And, at the moment, the setup in bitcoin looks bearish. <\/p>\n

Here’s the chart… <\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

Bitcoin peaked in early October. It has been trending lower ever since. The decline has pushed bitcoin below its various moving average lines. And, those moving averages have shifted to a bearish formation – with the 9-day EMA below the 20-day EMA, and the 20-day EMA below the 50-day MA. <\/p>\n

The momentum indicators at the bottom of the chart have been declining right along with the price of bitcoin. This confirms the downtrend.  <\/p>\n

A similar setup in late May led to a fast, 20% decline in bitcoin. If we get the same sort of action this time, then the King of Crypto is headed towards $65,000. <\/p>\n

It will be hard for the broad stock market to rally in that environment. <\/p>\n

Bitcoin is the stock market’s canary in the coal mine. When it’s rallying, investors are in “risk-on” mode. They’re willing to speculate, to take on risk, to aggressively buy stocks. <\/p>\n

But, when bitcoin goes “risk-off” investors pull back. They trim positions, raise stops, and are reluctant to put new money into the stock market. <\/p>\n

The canary started coughing a few weeks ago. Since then, the S&P 500 has declined 2%. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped 6%. And, the semiconductor sector (SMH) fell more than 10%. <\/p>\n

If we’re going to get a year-end stock market rally, then bitcoin needs to turn higher. Until that happens, any strength in the broad stock market will likely prove temporary. <\/p>\n

Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n

\"Signature\"<\/p>\n

Jeff Clark
\nEditor, Market Minute<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If we’re going to get a year-end stock market rally, then bitcoin needs to turn higher. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2759,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"0","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-28813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_content_changed_at":"","ai_tts_content_changed_during_generation":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2759"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28813"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28819,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28813\/revisions\/28819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28813"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=28813"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=28813"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=28813"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=28813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}