{"id":28855,"date":"2026-10-30T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-30T11:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/?p=28855"},"modified":"2026-10-29T15:06:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T19:06:15","slug":"what-a-2-racetrack-bet-taught-us-about-picking-winning-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/what-a-2-racetrack-bet-taught-us-about-picking-winning-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"What a $2 Racetrack Bet Taught Us About Picking Winning Stocks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Managing Editor\u2019s note:<\/strong><\/em> Today, we\u2019re handing the floor to Landon Swan. Landon and his brother, Andy, cofounded LikeFolio, the consumer-data research firm behind our MegaTrends<\/em> service. Below, Landon explains how childhood trips to a Kentucky racetrack shaped their work, and how it led to their first collaboration with our corporate partner Marc Chaikin, founder of Chaikin Analytics.<\/p>\n

On Tuesday, Marc and the Swans hosted The Stock Tsunami Event, <\/strong> where they shared the stocks their two systems agree on.<\/p>\n

They also shared three free stock ideas for attendees: two urgent buys and one even more urgent sell. If you missed the event Tuesday, you can catch it for a limited time right here.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n

What a $2 Racetrack Bet Taught Us About Picking Winning Stocks<\/h2>\n

By Landon Swan, Senior Analyst, TradeSmith<\/p>\n\n

It all started when I was a kid making $2 bets at Ellis Park.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ellis Park is tucked into Henderson, Kentucky, just across the Ohio River from Evansville, Indiana, where I grew up. It\u2019s one of the oldest racetracks in America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s me in a winner\u2019s circle photo from July 21, 1989.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m the blond kid in the red shorts, making the \u201cWe\u2019re No. 1\u201d sign for the camera. My older brother, Andy, is the tall boy to my left. Mom is behind him. Dad, in the yellow striped sports shirt, towers just off her right shoulder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that\u2019s Grandpa Rock in the middle, with the hat, suspenders, and pocket protector. His horse, Rockin Liz Ann, had just won her race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grandpa Rock owned thoroughbreds. Some of my best boyhood memories are of the trips we took with him across the river to Ellis Park.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our parents gave Andy and me $2 each to bet, with one condition. We could choose win, place, or show\u2026 but we had to bet on Grandpa\u2019s horse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those trips sparked a lifelong love of statistics, probabilities, and forecasting. And as I\u2019ll show you today, that same instinct led us to an edge in the stock market that some of America\u2019s top hedge funds have paid up to $750,000 a year to access.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, for the first time, we\u2019ve combined it with the market timing system of a Wall Street legend. (More on him below.) In our testing, when the two systems agreed on a stock, it went on to double or more at its peak 6 out of 10 times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But first, you need to know where our edge comes from. Because most folks likely aren\u2019t paying attention to it…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Problem With Earnings Reports<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Most folks on Wall Street study earnings reports, analyst notes, and the news. All that information tells you something about what a stock is worth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But before a company reports a great quarter, people are already buying its products, telling their friends, and searching for it online. The earnings report just confirms what was already happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Andy and I wanted to measure that momentum while it was still building. So after working together at TD Ameritrade, we set out on our own. In 2012, we started collecting what millions of Americans post online about the things they buy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We weren\u2019t interested in selfies or political opinions \u2013 that\u2019s just “noise.” Instead, we were looking for purchases or purchase intent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

People vote with their dollars every day. When they post about what they bought, or what they want to buy, you can watch the vote happen in real time\u2026 months before it shows up in a company\u2019s official numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, our system pulls from X (formerly Twitter), where we\u2019re a preferred partner with direct, real-time access. It also draws on Reddit, YouTube, search trends, web traffic, and app downloads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All told, we\u2019ve collected 23.5 terabytes of data. That\u2019s roughly double the entire book collection of the Library of Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hard part is knowing which signals matter. Not every online mention carries the same weight, and not every trend turns into revenue. So we use AI to pick out the consumer behaviors that have historically led to big stock moves\u2026 and to spot those patterns much earlier than traditional research can.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Academics at Georgetown University have studied our work. Our research has been cited at Harvard as well. And the results speak for themselves…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Months Before Wall Street Caught On<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In early 2020, pet owners stopped walking into Walmart and PetSmart. Instead, they started to order dog food and cat litter online.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That should have been great news for online pet store Chewy (CHWY)<\/strong>. And at first, it was.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But many Wall Street analysts doubted the boom would last. One admitted the pandemic had been great for Chewy\u2019s sales\u2026 but warned that \u201ca few dynamics\u201d would eat into how much profit it kept from each sale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports like that sent the stock falling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our consumer sentiment data revealed something different, though…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Demand for Chewy\u2019s products had more than tripled. And 85% of the posts about the brand were positive. We recommended the stock, and it jumped 160% in less than a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chewy wasn\u2019t a one-off. The same data put our readers into sports betting platform DraftKings (DKNG)<\/strong> before a 218% gain\u2026 video-call company Zoom (ZM)<\/strong> before it rose 192%\u2026 and crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN)<\/strong> before a 445% run. In all, we\u2019ve closed 28 trades that doubled or better in the past five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, there was one thing our system couldn\u2019t tell us…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We could see the demand building. But we couldn\u2019t always tell when Wall Street\u2019s big money would finally show up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s where Marc Chaikin comes in…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Missing Piece From a 60-Year Wall Street Legend<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Marc spent decades on Wall Street.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hundreds of hedge funds, banks, and brokerages still use his first market timing indicator. And his Power Gauge system rates stocks on more than 20 factors, from a company\u2019s finances to whether big institutional money is flowing in or out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Power Gauge boils all of that down to a single, actionable rating for each company. It’s “bullish” or better when the overall setup looks strong. And it’s “bearish” or worse when the setup looks bleak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Andy and I met Marc at an investor conference earlier this year. Marc immediately saw that the data from both of our systems was the perfect combination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think of Marc\u2019s Power Gauge as the buoy near the shore. It reads how big a wave is as it gets close. And its ratings tell you whether it\u2019s a good time to get in on it or not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our data is the sensor on the ocean floor. It picks up the first movement\u2026 the moment people start buying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The three of us went back and tested every case where both systems agreed on a stock over the past six years. We found 432 of them. In 260, or 6 out of every 10, the stock went on to double or more at its peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our combined systems spotted video game retailer GameStop (GME)<\/strong> after it went viral on Reddit. It went on to soar as high as 7,488%. They also aligned on energy drink maker Celsius (CELH)<\/strong> in early 2020, before it shot up as high as 5,970%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are some of the best examples from our backtest, of course. And no system wins every time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it\u2019s the kind of edge Andy and I have been chasing since those days at Ellis Park.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Our Systems Are Flagging Right Now<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Right now, both our systems are flagging a new set of stocks. And we want to show you exactly what they are before the crowd catches on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s why Andy and I joined Marc for the Stock Tsunami Event<\/strong> on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We walked you through the stocks our two systems agree on right now\u2026 why you\u2019ll want to have this research before Nov. 3\u2026 and three free stock ideas as a “thank you” for joining us: two urgent buys and one even more urgent sell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grandpa Rock always made us bet on his horse. This time, we\u2019ve got two systems telling us which ones to back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don\u2019t want you to miss out \u2013 if you couldn\u2019t make our Tuesday event, you can watch the replay right here.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cheers,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Landon Swan
Senior Analyst, TradeSmith<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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