{"id":7797,"date":"2018-01-04T07:30:59","date_gmt":"2018-01-04T12:30:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=7797"},"modified":"2018-01-04T07:30:59","modified_gmt":"2018-01-04T12:30:59","slug":"the-dollars-next-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-dollars-next-move\/","title":{"rendered":"The Dollar\u2019s Next Move"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The US Dollar Index ($USD) is set up for a short-term bounce.<\/p>\n<p>But don\u2019t get too bullish on the buck just yet. It still has some downside work to do over the next few weeks.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/why-the-dollar-is-headed-lower\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The last time we looked at the dollar<\/a>, back in mid-December, we noted that the chart had the look of a \u201chead and shoulders\u201d pattern. And that, if $USD broke support at the 93 level, it could quickly drop down to the September low.<\/p>\n<p>That is exactly what happened. Take a look\u2026<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"841\" height=\"513\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-7801\" style=\"width: 100%;\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/19\/2018\/01\/Screen-Shot-2018-01-04-at-11.14.29.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Screen-Shot-2018-01-04-at-11.14.29.png 841w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Screen-Shot-2018-01-04-at-11.14.29-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Screen-Shot-2018-01-04-at-11.14.29-768x468.png 768w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Screen-Shot-2018-01-04-at-11.14.29-646x394.png 646w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Screen-Shot-2018-01-04-at-11.14.29-787x480.png 787w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 841px) 100vw, 841px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Now, with the dollar hitting our downside target and approaching support, it\u2019s reasonable to expect a short-term bounce in the buck. A move back up towards the former support line near 93 \u2013 which is now resistance \u2013 wouldn\u2019t be too much of a surprise.<\/p>\n<p>But\u2026 and this is the really important point\u2026 any bounce in the buck right now is likely to be temporary.<\/p>\n<p>Take a look at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary#macd\">MACD indicator<\/a> at the bottom of the chart. It has been falling right along with the decline in the dollar. That tells us the intermediate-term downtrend that began in November is strong and is likely to continue.<\/p>\n<p>So, following any short-term bounce, $USD is likely to start falling again. And that\u2019s a big problem.<\/p>\n<p>You see, the low in November was the lowest level in $USD in the past three years. Breaking below that level would be a major breakdown.<\/p>\n<p>Just look at this longer-term chart\u2026<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"833\" height=\"378\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-7802\" style=\"width: 100%;\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/19\/2018\/01\/Screen-Shot-2018-01-04-at-11.15.55.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Screen-Shot-2018-01-04-at-11.15.55.png 833w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Screen-Shot-2018-01-04-at-11.15.55-300x136.png 300w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Screen-Shot-2018-01-04-at-11.15.55-768x349.png 768w, https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Screen-Shot-2018-01-04-at-11.15.55-700x318.png 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 833px) 100vw, 833px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>You can see how important the first line of support is for the buck.<\/p>\n<p>Breaking below the 91.50 level brings the 88 support level into play. That would be the lowest level in three years.<\/p>\n<p>So, if you\u2019re tempted to bet on a dollar bounce right now, then go right ahead. Just don\u2019t stay in the trade too long. The intermediate-term outlook remains bearish.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 150px; width: 150px;\" src=\"https:\/\/casey-assets.s3.amazonaws.com\/images\/misc\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"150\" \/><\/div>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><em>Today, readers mull over Jeff\u2019s latest blog trading action\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px; padding-left: 15px;\"><p>Your blog posts about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/delta-direct\/general-electric-ge-trade-recommendation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">General Electric (GE)<\/a> and \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/delta-direct\/golden-observations\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Golden Observations<\/a>\u201d popped up. Perfect timing because it matches my thoughts.<\/p>\n<p>With gold moving well and miners lagging, I was nervous. But with it moving sideways, I am encouraged. Crept up on $1,296 and didn&#8217;t reverse. Next is $1,310. We are set up.<\/p>\n<p>Everyone has a foot out the door. Will it bust loose and then a nasty shake? Guess we will find out!<\/p>\n<p>Been watching GE since you mentioned it as well. Looked really good and down a bit premarket looked better. Bought the calls you recommended this morning and sold puts earlier. I think people are going to like this if they watch carefully.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\" align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Marty B.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px; padding-left: 15px;\"><p>Just wanted to let you know I think you&#8217;re right about GE. Due to family activities, I wasn&#8217;t able to enter the position until earlier today but that actually worked to my advantage and I got in at a better price, so I had a small gain at the close of the market today.<\/p>\n<p>Your recommendations have done well for me this past year and I am anticipating an even better year in 2018 as I think it inevitable that volatility returns to the market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\" align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Scott S.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>And respond to another of our popular holiday features\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px; padding-left: 15px;\"><p>I enjoyed your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-greatest-scam-ever\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">succinct observations on the Social Security system<\/a>. I am retired now for two years and considering what I paid into it over the last 45 years, my SS income almost seems like a slap in the face.<\/p>\n<p>The problem is that Social Security is a massive, government-sponsored Ponzi scheme. Current beneficiaries are supported by current employees&#8217; FICA withholding. As a Baby Boomer, there are not enough Millennials and Gen-Xers working to support the larger Boomer demographic.<\/p>\n<p>I wasn&#8217;t counting on Social Security in retirement, but I realize that I am likely the exception, rather than the rule. Thanks for your part in helping me grow my investment portfolio.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\" align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Mark E.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>As always, feel free to send in your trading stories, questions, and suggestions\u00a0<a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">right here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>In Case You Missed It\u2026<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>2018 will be the year legal marijuana booms.<\/p>\n<p>Even Doug Casey, founder of Casey Research, is convinced the \u201cGreen Rush\u201d is for real. And next Wednesday at 8 p.m., Doug will join globetrotting crisis investor Nick Giambruno at the Marijuana Millionaire Summit.<\/p>\n<p>During the summit, Doug and his team will discuss the best opportunities in marijuana, including the top 5 pot stocks for 2018. To claim your spot at this event, for free, <a href=\"https:\/\/pages.exct.caseyresearch.com\/page.aspx?QS=38dfbe491fab00eadaecd4d47b84cd94e97c400b5712be99093a31a735cc25cc&amp;source=180104JmuEd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/pages.exct.caseyresearch.com\/page.aspx?QS=38dfbe491fab00eadaecd4d47b84cd94e97c400b5712be99093a31a735cc25cc&amp;source=180104JmuEd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-7801\" style=\"max-width: 550px; width: 100%;\" src=\"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/19\/2018\/01\/mm-icymi-1.4.18.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you\u2019re betting on a bounce in the dollar, don\u2019t stick around too long\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-7797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7797","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7797"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7797\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7797"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7797"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7797"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=7797"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=7797"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=7797"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=7797"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}