{"id":8066,"date":"2018-01-19T07:30:26","date_gmt":"2018-01-19T12:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=8066"},"modified":"2018-01-19T07:30:26","modified_gmt":"2018-01-19T12:30:26","slug":"the-problem-with-a-hot-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-problem-with-a-hot-market\/","title":{"rendered":"The Problem With a Hot Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We\u2019re just three weeks into 2018 and already the S&amp;P 500 is up almost 5%. The stock market has closed higher in 10 of the 12 trading days this year.<\/p>\n<p>The momentum is strong. The bulls are charging. And everyone wants in on the action.<\/p>\n<p>But there\u2019s a problem\u2026 The hotter the stock market gets, the fewer the opportunities for low-risk trades. So, traders either need to sit on the sidelines and wait, search for unpopular trades that haven\u2019t moved yet, or cast their risk discipline aside and just jump on board the charging bull.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve been skeptical of the current run higher since it started on January 2. I don\u2019t trust one-way market moves. So, I\u2019ve been telling folks to sit on the sidelines or buy into the beaten-down gold sector.<\/p>\n<p>Most folks don\u2019t want to hear that. They want to hear that it\u2019s okay to pile into the hot stocks no matter the price and no matter the risk.<\/p>\n<p>But I can\u2019t do that. I can\u2019t tell you to put your money at risk in positions that I wouldn\u2019t touch at current prices. I\u2019d rather you be disappointed with me for telling you to sit on the sidelines than have you disappointed with me for losing you money when the stock market\u2019s rubber band eventually snaps back.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a taste of some of the feedback I got this week\u2026<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px; padding-left: 15px;\"><p>Jeff, the market has been soaring and a lot of money is being made except us. You have us watching on the sidelines. Luckily I didn&#8217;t go for the last little losing trade with FAZ.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s get going with selling some real naked puts on good, hot stocks and then sell the calls if put to us. Just pull the trigger on good stuff, there&#8217;s plenty to choose from.<strong><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 0px !important;\" align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Rene S.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Hi Rene. Thanks for writing in.<\/p>\n<p>I understand your frustration. But, since I earn my living as a trader, I have to stay focused more on risk than on reward. And, the \u201cgood hot stocks\u201d you apparently want me to recommend simply have too much risk at this point to offer a favorable risk\/reward trade setup.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m glad you didn\u2019t get hit with the loss we took on the FAZ trade. That seemed to me to be a low-risk way to trade in anticipation of a market reversal. I was wrong, and we took just over a 2% loss on the position.<\/p>\n<p>Tell me, though\u2026 did you trade any of the gold positions I\u2019ve recommended over the past few weeks?<\/p>\n<p>We just closed the Goldcorp (GG) call option trade for a 155% gain. And we\u2019ve traded the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners Fund (GDX) calls a couple of times as well. We earned 142% on the first trade, and we just sold half of the second trade for a 100% gain.<\/p>\n<p>Gold stocks may not be the \u201cgood hot stocks\u201d you\u2019d like to trade. But they\u2019ve been giving us some good opportunities for big gains without a whole lot of risk.<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px; padding-left: 15px;\"><p>[A beaten-down restaurant stock]? Really. We&#8217;re in a raging bull market in an earnings period and, among all the possible choices out there, you pick [a beaten-down restaurant stock]?<\/p>\n<p>Are you crazy? Sorry, this may work but not for me. Not a confidence builder.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 0px !important;\" align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Jay D.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Hi Jay. I tried to find an artificial intelligence company that uses blockchain technology to fund marijuana farms\u2026 but I couldn\u2019t find anything that fit my risk\/reward parameters.<\/p>\n<p>So, I went with a fundamentally cheap restaurant stock with a good technical pattern.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ll try to do better next week.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-bottom: 20px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 150px; width: 150px;\" src=\"https:\/\/casey-assets.s3.amazonaws.com\/images\/misc\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"150\" \/><\/div>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<p><strong>P.S. <\/strong>No matter how hot this market gets, in the <em>Delta Report<\/em>, we\u2019ll stick to principles.<\/p>\n<p>We find great trades every week not by chasing fads, but by targeting beaten-down sectors and making outsized gains when they snap back. We shun risk, not chase it\u2026 and we\u2019re rewarded in return.<\/p>\n<p>To learn more about a subscription to the <em>Delta Report<\/em>, <a href=\"https:\/\/secure.jeffclarktrader.com\/chain?cid=MKT341952&amp;eid=MKT344772&amp;step=start&amp;plcid=PLC030179&amp;SNAID=%25%25SNAID%25%25&amp;encryptedSnaid=%25%25ENCRYPTEDSNAID%25%25&amp;emailjobid=%25%25jobid%25%25&amp;emailname=%25%25emailname_%25%25\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Today, <em>Market Minute<\/em> readers chime in\u2026<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px; padding-left: 15px;\"><p>I do not subscribe to your <em>Delta Report<\/em> service (or any other, for that matter). I steer my own boat.<\/p>\n<p>Your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/like-asking-a-cat-to-bark\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">analysis for your position today<\/a> is spot-on. Sometimes the greatest reward follows the most pain. Tell your naysayers to pull up their big-boy pants and tough it out.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 0px !important;\" align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 DF H.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px; padding-left: 15px;\"><p>I appreciate your hard work, expertise, and integrity. I like your <em>Market Minute<\/em> and learning your trading knowledge.<\/p>\n<p>I think the market is going up because of tax reform, computer algorithms, and worldwide affluence because of money printing. I think it will go up for some time and flat for some time and again pick up later in 2018. Gold price cannot go up so long as paper trading in futures and someone dumping billions of dollars of futures suddenly as I see Zero Hedge reporting.<\/p>\n<p>I see this for the last several years and no one is able to stop this. COT report is just a good report \u2013 does not mean much. Just like bitcoin has less volatility now since futures started trading.<\/p>\n<p>I am slowly trying to get out of gold, like Buffett.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 0px !important;\" align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Uppunda B.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>As always, feel free to send in your trading stories, questions, and suggestions\u00a0<a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s always key to focus on risk, not reward\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-8066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8066"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8066\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8066"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=8066"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=8066"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=8066"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=8066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}