{"id":8444,"date":"2018-02-13T07:30:48","date_gmt":"2018-02-13T12:30:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=8444"},"modified":"2018-02-13T07:30:48","modified_gmt":"2018-02-13T12:30:48","slug":"the-best-strategy-when-volatility-is-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-best-strategy-when-volatility-is-high\/","title":{"rendered":"The Best Strategy When Volatility Is High"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Volatility is back\u2026 duh.<\/p>\n<p>One of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/my-preferred-trading-strategy-for-2018\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">my top predictions for 2018<\/a> was for a return of volatility. That prediction really wasn\u2019t much of a stretch. Periods of low volatility are ALWAYS followed by periods of high volatility. So, after an entire year of a declining Volatility Index (VIX), calling for a higher VIX in 2018 was like sinking a one-inch putt.<\/p>\n<p>Trying to profit by trading options when the VIX is high is quite a bit more difficult. Let me explain\u2026<\/p>\n<p>When the VIX is high, option premiums inflate. That means option buyers are paying premium prices to buy calls and puts. So, it takes a larger move in the underlying stock in order to profit.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, sellers of calls and puts are collecting a higher-than-normal premium. So, they\u2019re collecting more money up front. And they have a larger hedge against an adverse move in the stock.<\/p>\n<p>In this sort of environment, traders should be looking to sell options rather than buy them.<\/p>\n<p>Rarely do we get such a clear example of how the VIX affects option prices as we saw over the past few days.<\/p>\n<p>When the stock market rallied on Monday and the S&amp;P quickly gained 36 points, the Volatility Index (VIX) dropped nearly 12%. As a result, option premiums dropped as well.<\/p>\n<p>For example, the SPY February $265 calls \u2013 which closed at $2.28 on Friday \u2013 rallied and closed at $2.86 yesterday. That\u2019s a decent gain, but it seems somewhat lacking given a HUGE 36-point gain in the S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n<p>In a low-volatility environment, a 36-point gain in the S&amp;P 500 would usually be enough to double the price of the call options.<\/p>\n<p>But that didn\u2019t happen. Traders who bought this expensive call option made $0.58 per share.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, folks who sold put options on Friday did a whole lot better.<\/p>\n<p>For example, the SPY February $265 puts closed Friday at $5.39. After yesterday\u2019s big rally in the S&amp;P 500, this option closed at $2.41. That\u2019s almost a $3-per-share gain. That\u2019s a much larger profit by selling uncovered puts than traders would have earned by buying calls.<\/p>\n<p>The ability to sell uncovered put options is an important strategy for any options trader. In a period of increased volatility, traders will make far more money by selling uncovered puts than by buying speculative call options.<\/p>\n<p>If you want to make money trading the stock market in 2018, then you absolutely need to be able to sell uncovered puts.<\/p>\n<p>Pick up the phone, talk with your brokerage firm, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/faq-how-to-start-trading-options\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">tell them you want to sell uncovered puts<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s likely to be the best-performing strategy in 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 200px; width: 100%;\" src=\"https:\/\/casey-assets.s3.amazonaws.com\/images\/misc\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<p><strong>P.S. <\/strong>Even in last year\u2019s low-volatility environment, <em>Delta Report<\/em> readers profited from selling uncovered puts over 20 times. And now, with volatility returning to the markets in such a big way, we&#8217;re\u00a0excited to continue putting this strategy to work.<\/p>\n<p>To learn how you can take advantage of this winning strategy as a <em>Delta Report<\/em> member, <a href=\"https:\/\/secure.jeffclarktrader.com\/chain?cid=MKT341952&amp;eid=MKT347205&amp;step=start&amp;plcid=PLC030994&amp;SNAID=%25%25SNAID%25%25&amp;encryptedSnaid=%25%25ENCRYPTEDSNAID%25%25&amp;emailjobid=%25%25jobid%25%25&amp;emailname=%25%25emailname_%25%25\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Today, a mixed bag of trading stories, thoughts on gold, and responses to last week\u2019s stock action\u2026<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px; padding-left: 15px;\"><p>I really appreciate all of the good info you provide us. I look at your comments several times daily.<\/p>\n<p>Regarding the SPY call\u2026 I got filled at $1.85, bought more at $0.52 and again at $0.15. I was able to sell for a profit at $0.91. The trades worked out well.<\/p>\n<p>I like getting paid to trade. I prefer the bullish put sell recommendations. Thanks and keep up the good work.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\" align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Dennis<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote id=\"lawrence-feedback\" style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px; padding-left: 15px;\"><p>Thanks for inquiring.<\/p>\n<p>Long story short, one fateful day last July, when I first began to trade options, unbeknownst to me, I blundered big time or so it would seem! For quite some time, long before I started to trade options, I had been trading gold stocks like Agnico Eagle (AEM), Barrick (ABX), and Goldcorp (G) with confidence and success. Typically, I would buy and sell 1000 shares of each gold stock at a time on my margin account.<\/p>\n<p>But, on that fateful day in July last year (or was it June?), I filled in a form thinking that I was placing an order for 1000 shares of AEM (Agnico Eagle). Now believe the unbelievable: without realizing it at that time, it turned out I was actually placing on order for 1000 calls of AEM. I did not realize my error until I checked my portfolio later that night. My broker told me only 47, instead of 1000, calls were filled and I was stuck with them. However, rightly or wrongly, I could not help thinking at the time I was somehow &#8220;finagled&#8221; into making that error. i.e., I was victimized.<\/p>\n<p>Oh well, it is not unknown that some rogue brokers at times operate in cahoots to &#8220;screw&#8221; an unwary beginner for their (brokers&#8217;) mutual benefit.<\/p>\n<p>Fortunately for me, in the course of time, I was able to recover my $7,000 loss and then some and I look forward to making more money with your help\/guidance. Thank you.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\" align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Lawrence<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px; padding-left: 15px;\"><p>I thought you and others <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/gold-stocks-are-poised-for-one-big-push-higher\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">thought silver and gold were going up<\/a>, but that is my biggest loser. Otherwise I am glad to be out of this wild market thanks to you.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\" align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Van<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px; padding-left: 15px;\"><p>Sincerely appreciate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/delta-direct\/saturday-morning-thoughts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Saturday\u2019s <i>Delta Direct<\/i><\/a><em>.<\/em> You are a wise mentor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\" align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Harvey<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px; padding-left: 15px;\"><p>Just read <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/delta-direct\/saturday-morning-thoughts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">your Saturday post<\/a>. As always, thank you for your insight, candor, and common-sense approach to the markets.<\/p>\n<p>I am sure that the S&amp;P has dropped more than 3% in less than 3 hours over the history of the market \u2026 \u201987 et al. But, how many times has the S&amp;P increased 3% in less than 3 hours in a single day like we saw yesterday? Your reminder that we are witnessing history spurned the question.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\" align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Pete<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left: 4px solid #ccc; margin: 0px 30px 0px 10px; padding-left: 15px;\"><p>You said: &#8220;At 2532 the S&amp;P was trading 160 points below its 9-day EMA. It was 185 points below its 50-day MA.\u00a0In 35 years of trading, I have never seen that happen before. That\u2019s a record-breaking oversold condition.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>In terms of absolute points, I can see that it is true. But what about on a percentage basis, 160 points is only about 6% below 2532. Is that a &#8220;record-breaking&#8221; oversold condition?<\/p>\n<p>You are right that Friday was gut wrenching, particularly when the trailing stops are triggered. I kept my &#8220;discipline&#8221; and sold the stock. But I keep on wondering whether I am getting whipsawed.\u00a0Thanks for the reassuring words that this may be the bottom.<\/p>\n<p style=\"-ms-text-size-adjust: none; -webkit-text-size-adjust: none; margin-bottom: 20px;\" align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Charles<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>As always, don\u2019t hesitate to write to us with your trading stories, experiences, questions, and suggestions. Remember, while we can&#8217;t offer personalized investment guidance, we read every comment we receive. And we love to publish your feedback, positive or negative, right here in the <em>Market Minute<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">You can send it right here.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is one of the most important assets in the option-trader\u2019s toolkit\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-8444","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"ai_tts_audio_outdated":false,"ai_tts_legacy_post":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8444","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8444"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8444\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8444"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8444"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8444"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=8444"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=8444"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=8444"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=8444"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}