{"id":8936,"date":"2018-03-20T07:30:17","date_gmt":"2018-03-20T11:30:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=8936"},"modified":"2018-03-20T07:30:17","modified_gmt":"2018-03-20T11:30:17","slug":"the-best-trade-is-no-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/the-best-trade-is-no-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"The Best Trade Is No Trade"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s hard to be bullish right now.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 closed at 2713 yesterday.\u00a0 That\u2019s below the support of its 50-day moving average and its 9-day exponential moving average.\u00a0 So, the odds of a retest of the February closing low near 2581 have improved.<\/p>\n<p>That means the scenario <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/my-trading-plan-for-this-week\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">I laid out yesterday<\/a> \u2013 which projected a move back up towards the 2800 level \u2013 isn\u2019t going to happen.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s too bad.\u00a0 It would have set up an irresistible short trade.\u00a0 But we have to keep the bigger picture in mind.\u00a0 And the bigger picture involves a retest of the February low on the S&amp;P near the 2580 level.<\/p>\n<p>If\/when the S&amp;P tumbles towards that level, I\u2019ll be looking to aggressively buy stocks.\u00a0 Until then though, I\u2019ll happily sit on the sidelines.<\/p>\n<p>The odds simply don\u2019t favor a trade on one side or the other.\u00a0 Technical conditions are neutral.\u00a0 The price action doesn\u2019t favor a move in either direction.\u00a0 So it seems to me that the best trade is no trade at all.<\/p>\n<p>Aggressive traders don\u2019t like that opinion.\u00a0 They want to be involved in every move \u2013 higher or lower \u2013 in the S&amp;P 500.\u00a0 They want a definitive opinion.\u00a0 But I can\u2019t give that to them.<\/p>\n<p>All I know for certain at this point is I\u2019m willing to short stocks aggressively if the S&amp;P 500 approaches the 2800 level.\u00a0 And I\u2019m willing to buy stocks aggressively on a move back down towards the February lows.\u00a0 I\u2019m not willing to trade much in between those levels.<\/p>\n<p>That might be useful to you. Or it might not. But that\u2019s my trading strategy for the next couple of weeks. I want to buy into extreme weakness and sell into extreme optimism. I don\u2019t mind sitting on the sidelines and waiting until the market chooses a direction.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s the best strategy I can think of heading into the FOMC decision on interest rates on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 200px; width: 100%;\" src=\"https:\/\/casey-assets.s3.amazonaws.com\/images\/misc\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"200\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the S&#038;P 500 falling yesterday, our best move right now is no move. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-8936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8936"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8936\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8936"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=8936"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=8936"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=8936"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=8936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}