![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Screen-Shot-2018-03-21-at-10.13.35.png\")
<\/p>\nThe U.S. Dollar Index (USD) popped higher yesterday.<\/p>\n
It wasn\u2019t a big move \u2013 just a 0.7% gain. But it was enough of a move to create a really bullish setup on the chart \u2013 just in time for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement on interest rates this afternoon.<\/p>\n
Take a look\u2026<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The dollar appears to be on the verge of breaking out to the upside of an ascending triangle pattern. Notice also how the 9-day exponential moving average<\/a> (the thin red line) is on the verge of crossing above the 50-day moving average<\/a> (the thin blue line). This \u201cbullish cross\u201d often occurs at the end of an intermediate-term downtrend and at the beginning of an intermediate-term uptrend.<\/p>\n This is a bullish setup for the dollar. All it needs is a catalyst for the breakout. And that catalyst may come from the FOMC when it announces another interest rate hike this afternoon.<\/p>\n If the dollar does indeed break out to the upside, then it should make a quick trip up towards the 92 level. And that sort of move in the dollar is going to put pressure on the price of gold.<\/p>\n Remember, last Friday I wrote about the precarious short-term look<\/a> of the gold chart. Gold was in a descending triangle formation\u2026 A breakdown from which would lead to a quick drop towards the $1,290 level.<\/p>\n So it\u2019s really no surprise that the dollar chart has the opposite look. Gold and the dollar often run in opposite directions.<\/p>\n It is convenient, though \u2013 and maybe fodder for the conspiracy theorists \u2013 that the charts of gold and the dollar are projecting volatile moves just as the new head of the FOMC is gearing up to make his first announcement.<\/p>\n Gold and currency traders should prepare for some fireworks this afternoon.<\/p>\n Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n Jeff Clark<\/p>\n Today, a big, mixed mailbag\u2026<\/p>\n On Monday, March 12th,<\/a> you stated the market might correct and aggressive traders might look for a pullback in the S&P. I purchased QID calls at $0.40 (I prefer the NASDAQ). It immediately went against me as the rest of Friday and the following Monday the market moved up. However, the rest of the week it started moving in my favor. Yesterday, I was able to sell for $0.80. I made a quick 4K in 6 trading days. Thanks for the help.<\/p>\n \u2013 David<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n <\/p>\n Dear Jeff, I have followed you for years at your previous publisher as well as with a lifetime subscription now. Your integrity and wisdom is clear in the fact you focus on “identifying” and recommending a “profitable” trade and not focused on pleasing unsophisticated subscribers who are only interested in getting a large number of trades from you.<\/p>\n The wise person always wants “Quality” rather than “Quantity” and normally you don’t get one with the other. You said it well: “I’d rather lose subscribers for not making them as much money as they thought they should make\u2026 than lose subscribers from losing them money\u201d<\/a>. Frankly, I do not care if you don’t find a compelling trade for weeks. Being “disciplined” and “Patient” eventually results in doing well for yourself and your clients. Wishing you many more years of doing your best to help your subscribers.<\/p>\n \u2013 Mitchell<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n <\/p>\n Thanks for your e-mails. I love them! I am a purely technical trader who learned the hard way trading indices futures while living in London way back in 2004. After wiping out twice and being forced back onto the horse by a very supportive partner at that time (now wife), I created a methodology of my own that helped me very successfully trade the ES and YM, but living in Australia meant sleeping all day and trading by night, and not even my hyper-understanding wife could tolerate that.<\/p>\n Got myself a great job, it just doesn\u2019t pay like my futures trading did! I miss it. Then I subscribed to your emails. Your emails speak my language. I love technical analysis and trading with pros. With multiple business interests and a young family it is difficult to allocate time to keep eyes on the markets regularly enough to yield the results I want. Thanks for taking the time to read this.<\/p>\n \u2013 Anthony<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n <\/p>\n Jeff, I have not achieved all the results you have tracked, but your work and efforts are exemplary. Just so you know, I haven’t executed a single uncovered put trade. (My bad.) Also, I pushed (increased) my play on your gold trades; even buying calls instead of shorting puts and with poorer results than you achieved. (My fault.)<\/p>\n Although, it nags at me the “they” keep their thumb on gold thereby preventing the possible upside moves your charts suggest. Maybe I am just a conspiracy guy. The only other thing I notice: it is really difficult to hit your entry\/exit points sometimes. But that is not really on you. I am happy getting 80% of what you might print! Anyway, you are doing great. Your advice is well thought-out and your timing is incredible. I really appreciate your hard work, look forward to your ideas, and expect to have a rewarding 2018 with you. Thank you big league.<\/p>\n \u2013 Bill<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n <\/p>\n Hey Jeff, I love the blog. I’ve never had a similar service; this is my first one and hopefully my only one as well. With getting text alerts, I don’t get the returns you do, but I’m happy with them. The entry price you use and the “you can pay up to” price are a little different, and my fills always seem to be closer to the latter. I’m glad to be able to say I’ve never paid more. Chasing a trade is not much of a temptation for me.<\/p>\n I know you can’t consider commissions, because they’re all over the map, and commissions don’t eat into the profits of large traders to the extent that they eat into someone trading a small number of contracts. Mine is a small account. I trade exclusively in a retirement account (All my money outside that account comprises my emergency fund, which I won’t expose to the market), so I have to do cash-secured naked puts instead of being able to trade them on margin. Therefore, I get a fourth or fifth the rate of return that you do. My exit prices are usually something less than your recommended exit price. Maybe, my server or phone doesn’t get me the alert as quickly as for some others. So, my returns can sometimes be a fraction of what you record. My return on the GE calls was particularly small – only 2.7% while yours was 25%. Hopefully, I get a bigger fraction on most of the others.<\/p>\n Nevertheless, with your massive annualized returns, if I only get 10% of what you get, it will still be better than 90% of the services to which I’ve subscribed over the last 17 years. I actually lost money on most of those. Unlike some of your subscribers, I do recognize all the work you do on our behalf, and although some would say your service is expensive, I’d say for the service you provide, it’s a bargain. Thanks!<\/p>\n \u2013 Paul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n <\/p>\n I\u2019m a subscriber to your Market Minute<\/em> but not your investment service. I just wanted to comment on your response to a disgruntled Mark<\/a>. Well rebuked. You have great reservation.<\/p>\n \u2013 Edward<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n <\/p>\n Jeff, don\u2019t change a thing. I been following your work for several years; I do about 20% of your trades. I love your approach to high-probability, low-risk trading by means of put sales when the premiums are high and speculative options purchases when premiums are low.<\/p>\n Your work ethic is unmatched, and the analysis is so attractive that I would subscribe if you never made another recommendation. I am a much better trader thanks to you. My money management (allocation) is sounder now than ever before. I have struggled with over-betting. Thanks for a great service. My best trade was in Walmart calls you recommended about 3 years ago, I made 400% in 3 days \u2013 $5,000 turned into $25,000 in 3 or 4 days.<\/p>\n \u2013 Dale<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n <\/p>\n This week could have hardly started worse.<\/a> This is terrible advice! You are sometimes right, but if you are wrong the damage is heavy. I remember that you advised a long position 6 weeks ago. The stock exchanges responded with a record breaking fast decline of 8%. Stop with this, because this is not a recommendation to subscribe to your services, or worse, it is making a fool of you. If you really want to continue with it, then at least mention always a clear stop loss. Anyhow, I tried your recommendations and it has cost me a lot of money, even with small positions. This is money I could have used for other purposes.<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/casey-assets.s3.amazonaws.com\/images\/misc\/jeff-clark-signature.png\")
<\/p>\nReader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n