{"id":9064,"date":"2018-03-28T07:30:48","date_gmt":"2018-03-28T11:30:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/?p=9064"},"modified":"2018-03-28T07:30:48","modified_gmt":"2018-03-28T11:30:48","slug":"torture-makes-a-bottom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/torture-makes-a-bottom\/","title":{"rendered":"Torture Makes a Bottom"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The stock market is torturing everyone right now.<\/p>\n<p>The week started off with the market torturing all the bears who were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/go-against-the-world-and-bet-on-a-bounce\/\">aggressively buying put options on Friday<\/a>. The S&amp;P 500 gained 70 points on Monday. And, as if that wasn\u2019t enough, the index gapped another 10 points higher on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>Then, once all the bears had been squeezed out of position, it was time for the market to torture the bulls.<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 did that by dropping 70 points intraday on Tuesday. The market erased nearly all of Monday\u2019s gains and left the bulls feeling like they had just spent an afternoon at a CIA waterboarding camp.<\/p>\n<p>But here\u2019s the thing\u2026 It is torturous market moves like we\u2019ve seen over the past few sessions that make a bottom for the stock market. Let me explain\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Look at this 60-minute chart of the S&amp;P 500\u2026<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9065 aligncenter\" style=\"width: 100%;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Screen-Shot-2018-03-28-at-11.21.15.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">Take a look at the setup we had in early February. If you remember back then, you\u2019ll recall I <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/a-rare-buy-signal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">started buying stocks on February 5<\/a>, when the S&amp;P was trading near the 2650 level. Technical indicators were deeply oversold and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#cboe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Volatility Index (VIX)<\/a> had flashed a buy signal. But there wasn\u2019t any positive divergence on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#macd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">MACD<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#rsi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">RSI<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">The oversold conditions did help the market rally for a day (or two). But it wasn\u2019t sustainable. All the rally did was allow the technical indicators to come off of oversold conditions, get closer to neutral territory, and give the market some room to push even lower.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">Then\u2026 on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/two-reasons-to-keep-your-guard-up\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">that final decline on February 9<\/a>\u2026 we got the positive divergence necessary to fuel a more significant bounce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">Now look at the recent action. To me it looks quite similar to the early February setup that created the first bounce. Technical indicators were deeply oversold on Friday. And the VIX generated a buy signal on Monday when it closed back inside its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#bollingerbands\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bollinger Bands<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">But there wasn\u2019t any positive divergence to help support Monday\u2019s rally. So, just as the early February bounce attempt failed, Monday\u2019s bounce was short-lived as well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">Now, though, at least we have the chance for a better bottoming setup on the chart. Monday\u2019s rally helped relieve the oversold conditions on the MACD and RSI technical indicators. It brought them back up to neutral territory. Now, if the S&amp;P falls and drops to a lower low \u2013 like something around 2575-ish \u2013 then we\u2019ll almost certainly get positive divergence on the technical indicators.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">That sort of action would help fuel a more significant rally \u2013 perhaps something similar to what happened after the February bottom.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">It doesn\u2019t have to play out this way, of course. The market might find a new way to torture its participants. But it\u2019s worth paying attention to this 60-minute S&amp;P chart.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"EN-US\">If the bottom of this current decline forms like the February decline, then the rally off of the bottom could be quite similar to the 200-point gain the S&amp;P enjoyed in February\u2019s second half.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Best regards and good trading,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"max-width: 150px; width: 100%;\" src=\"https:\/\/casey-assets.s3.amazonaws.com\/images\/misc\/jeff-clark-signature.png\" width=\"150\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<p><strong>P.S. <\/strong>For a majority of investors, this torturous action in the broad market has been nothing but frustrating. But for my <em>Delta Report <\/em>readers, it\u2019s exciting.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s because we know how to capitalize on overextended market moves, week after week, with our option trades.<\/p>\n<p>To learn more about how we do this, and why this April could be one of our best months so far this year, <a href=\"https:\/\/secure.jeffclarktrader.com\/chain?cid=MKT350100&amp;eid=MKT352337&amp;step=start&amp;plcid=PLC032819&amp;SNAID=%25%25SNAID%25%25&amp;encryptedSnaid=%25%25ENCRYPTEDSNAID%25%25&amp;emailjobid=%25%25jobid%25%25&amp;emailname=%25%25emailname_%25%25\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Reader Mailbag<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Today, another mixed, positive batch of feedback\u2026<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left-color: #ddd; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 4px; margin: 0px 20px 20px 10px; padding-left: 20px;\"><p>I\u2019ve been a subscriber of your service going back several years since your original publisher because I wanted both investment advice and trading advice. I\u2019m very glad that I became a lifetime subscriber on your trading service after you went solo. I\u2019ve studied technicals for many years and love to see how group psychology plays out in the charts.<\/p>\n<p>The recent bottoming of the SPY (at least for now) proves the point. I drew a trend line over a year ago, connecting the low on 2\/11\/16 and the low on 11\/4\/16. And look what SPY bounced off of twice so far this year. Add in the 200-day <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jeffclarktrader.com\/glossary\/#movingaverage\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">moving average<\/a> which also is very nearly the same levels and there was a VERY high probability of a bounce. And after reading your Monday morning commentary then seeing the market head lower right away I bought a whole bunch of SSO at pretty close to yesterday\u2019s low with a plan to sell as the market heads toward resistance. The blue line goes all the way back to the beginning (March 2009) and connects three lows. When that line is broken it\u2019s because all hell has broken loose and time to head to the bunker.<\/p>\n<p>You make me a better trader. Your insight into technicals (groupthink) helps me to see the market dynamics more clearly. I also love that you give us insight into the various indicators you use. I\u2019ve subscribed to a few other services that only give trade ideas (many wrong) without telling me why. Your explanations allow me to learn your methods so I can become a better trader on my own. But that doesn\u2019t mean that I\u2019ll ever stop reading your emails. Keep up the great work.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Mike<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left-color: #ddd; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 4px; margin: 0px 20px 20px 10px; padding-left: 20px;\"><p>Being an active technical trader, our opinions often agree. I do like that \u2013 another bit of confirmation.<\/p>\n<p>Keep doing what you do, in my honest opinion you&#8217;re very good at it. Can&#8217;t please everyone. Love the <em>Market Minute<\/em>! Thanks ever so much.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Dennis<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left-color: #ddd; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 4px; margin: 0px 20px 20px 10px; padding-left: 20px;\"><p>Hey Jeff, I love your work and feel you are spot-on. I\u2019ve traded long enough to get your prognostications and I appreciate your skill in reading where the markets are headed. Again, thanks.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Tim<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote style=\"border-left-color: #ddd; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 4px; margin: 0px 20px 20px 10px; padding-left: 20px;\"><p>Jeff, how can people complain about a free newsletter? I appreciate your insights. I don&#8217;t rely on them as a sole source of guidance, but I do put considerable weight on your analysis. I used to be a subscriber to your service when you were with your previous publisher, and was sorry to see you go. I should have accepted your offer for a free trial to your <em>Delta Report<\/em> when you first launched that publication, but I didn&#8217;t then (and still don&#8217;t) think I can afford that so I was reluctant to take advantage of your offer back then because I knew it was unlikely that I would feel I could continue to subscribe. I wish you had a less expensive service, but I respect whatever you choose as a business model.<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, my point in writing is that I want to thank you for your free <em>Market Minute<\/em> emails. I know it&#8217;s a form of advertising (I&#8217;d buy based on what I&#8217;ve read if <em>Delta Report<\/em> wasn&#8217;t as expensive as it is), and it is a good way to demonstrate your expertise (generally, you have been pretty much on target) while giving us small investors some insight into the markets. Thank you for what you are doing as a public service. Best wishes.<\/p>\n<p align=\"right\"><strong>\u2013 Paul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Getting your letters is one of the most rewarding parts of our day. Thanks to everyone for writing in with your experiences, comments, and questions.<\/p>\n<p>And as always, keep them coming <a href=\"mailto:feedback@jeffclarktrader.com\">right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Neither bulls nor bears are free from stock market woes. Here\u2019s what to take from that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"service":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"publication":[10],"person":[7],"newsletter-type":[],"ticker":[],"class_list":["post-9064","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-minute","publication-market-minute","person-jeff-clark"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9064","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9064"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9064\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9064"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9064"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9064"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=9064"},{"taxonomy":"person","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person?post=9064"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter-type?post=9064"},{"taxonomy":"ticker","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jeffclarktrader.com\/market-minute\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ticker?post=9064"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}