The private credit market is blowing up… supposedly.
Private credit loans are going bad. Software investments are losing money. Investors are being denied redemption requests. And, if you believe the headlines, the industry is headed towards a 2008-style financial crisis.
As a result, the private credit asset management stocks have been crushed. Shares of Ares Management (ARES), Blue Owl Capital (OWL), and Apollo Global Management (APO), for example, are all down more than 40% since the start of 2026.
Funny thing though… industry insiders have been stepping up to buy shares into this decline.
Two directors at Ares Management bought stock in February. Three of Blue Owl’s corporate officers recently bought stock in their company. And, five insiders at KKR & Company (KKR) purchased a combined total of more than $5 million worth of stock over the past two months.
This sort of purchasing by industry insiders has to make you wonder if the “crisis” stories that have been all over the financial media for the past several weeks are maybe just a bit exaggerated.
It’s also curious that the stories have all but disappeared this week.
It seems to me that all the panic in the private credit market may have been misplaced or manufactured. If so, then the decline in the stocks is a compelling buying opportunity.
Private credit companies are simply non-bank companies that raise money from investors in order to make loans to other institutions. If there was indeed a crisis brewing in the industry, then it would show up in the default rate of these loans. And, so far, that isn’t happening.
As of the end of December 2025, the Private Credit Default Index stood at 2.46%. While that is an increase from the previous quarter, it is still in the range that is considered “stable.”
Of course, if economic conditions worsen, if interest rates rise sharply, and if the financial markets seize up, then defaults will increase. And, all the dire warnings about the impending collapse of private credit will ring true.
But, if the buying activity is any indication, industry insiders don’t see that happening.
The recent pitiful action in the private credit asset management stocks suggests the stock market is discounting the worst possible scenario. If it turns out the industry is not on the precipice of a collapse, then the current stock prices represent a compelling buying opportunity.
At least the company insiders seem to think so.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
Editor, Market Minute